Aug 232012

Bret Baier reports that an academic analysis that has correctly picked the winner of every presidential election since 1980 is forecasting a victory for Mitt Romney. The University of Colorado’s model factors in state-by-state economic conditions, such as unemployment rate and capital income. It predicts Governor Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote and about ((( 320 electoral votes.))) The study has President Obama losing almost all of the so-called swing states, and predicts that he will finish with only 218 electoral college votes and 47 percent of the popular vote.

Back in February they were so cockfired sure it would be Bambi with 303 electoral votes :

With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee’s 235.

How do we know? We don’t, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data–based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists–suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.

* Romney/Ryan are predicted to win 17 MORE electoral votes then Barry

And this JUST in from Real Clear Politics shows Romney/Ryan closing in on the swing states that Obama was to carry. Most notably Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida. And Michigan is doable:

Ohio Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3 (margin of error)

Florida CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Romney 46, Obama 49 Obama +3 (margin of error)

Ohio CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6

Wisconsin CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2 (margin of error)

Michigan Detroit News Obama 48, Romney 42 Obama +6

Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 49, Romney 40 Obama +9

Connecticut Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, Romney 43 Obama +8

If seniors and the poor would JUST get this news, next week most swing states would be in Romney’s corner!


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