The potent mix of severe weather ingredients continues after darkness, putting several Midwestern and Plains states on high alert.
Earlier, for only the second time in U.S. history, the Storm Prediction Center issued a high-risk warning more than 24 hours in advance, said Russ Schneider, director of the center, which is part of the National Weather Service. The first time was in April 2006, when nearly 100 tornadoes tore across the southeastern U.S., killing a dozen people and damaging more than 1,000 homes.
Forecasters say life-threatening tornadoes are likely beginning this afternoon. Storms will also bring large hail and damaging winds.
Big weather day in store for the Nation’s mid-section where the SPC has outlined a high risk for severe weather across the area including the eastern half of Nebraska, eastern half of Kansas, and a chunk of northern Oklahoma. Of course, the high risk areas are surrounded by a moderate risk area as well. CAPE values expected to reach into the range of 2500 to 4000, so tremendous instability. Helicity values also climbing into the 300 to 600 range, so the recipe for severe weather seems to be coming together
Looks like our best chances for rain will come late in the day on Monday and into Tuesday. While there is some risk of severe weather for Monday and early Tuesday, SPC did not outline a specific area for a slight risk. Main threat should be in the form of damaging wind with embedded severe thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts late Monday and into Tuesday could be respectable with 1 to 2 inch amounts possible with the stronger storms.
The upper trough moves by Tuesday taking the rain east of us and returning us to a dry pattern on Wednesday. James Spann
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Along with the National Weather Service alerts, WeatherBug issues additional more localized alerts.
Saturday April 14
EX: an 7 is a 70% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location in the specified area…Per TWC, reported Dr. Forbes may go to Tor-Con 9 in some places later today. I will update if Tor-Con levels change right here…
IA northwest 3 – 4
IA southwest – 5
IA south-central – 4
IA northeast night – 2
IA west night – 7
KS central – 9
KS east – 5
KS central, northeast night – 9
KS near Wichita night – 7
MN extreme southwest – 2
MN south night – 4
MO northwest, west-central – 4
MO northwest night – 7
NE south – central – 9
NE north – central – 5
NE central night – 8
NE east – 7
NE east – 6, night – 7
OK northwest – 9
OK southwest, central – 7
OK northeast – 5
SD southeast – 2
SD southeast night – 3
TX east panhandle – 7
TX northwest east of Midland to Wichita Falls – 4
TX northwest near San Angelo to Wichita Falls night – 5
WI west-central,southwest night – 2