{Update SW Blount, N Jefferson, SE Walker} * Severe Threat * for Alabama & links for ALL PDS Alerts…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A:
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… SOUTHWESTERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN ALABAMA… NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA… SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT
* AT 345 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELOIT…OR NEAR CORDOVA…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… DORA…SUMITON…ROCKY HOLLOW…SIPSEY…ARKADELPHIA…MORRIS… KIMBERLY AND WARRIOR.
THIS INCLUDES… INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 275 THROUGH 282… US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 70 THROUGH 85…
~ Still very active in AL. Particularly South near the Gulf…
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT…
AT 134 PM CDT… THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GORGAS STEAM PLANT… OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF CORDOVA… MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE… DORA… SUMITON… GARDENDALE… GORGAS… GORGAS STEAM PLANT…
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA… TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.
~ JUST talked to PF who is now in Sipsey , system went directly over him, he was in the affected areas… BE SAFE Friends!
Issued by The National Weather Service Birmingham, AL
Thu, May 26, 2011, 9:16 AM CDTTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ALABAMA
BIBB BLOUNT JEFFERSON SHELBY ST. CLAIR TALLADEGA WALKER
IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
CALHOUN CLAY CLEBURNE RANDOLPH
IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA
CHEROKEE ETOWAH
IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA
WINSTON
IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
FAYETTE LAMAR PICKENS TUSCALOOSA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…
ALABASTER… ALICEVILLE… ANNISTON… ASHLAND… BIRMINGHAM… BRENT… CARROLLTON… CENTRE… CENTREVILLE… COLUMBIANA… FAYETTE… GADSDEN… HALEYVILLE… HEFLIN… HOOVER… JACKSONVILLE… JASPER… LINEVILLE… MOODY… ONEONTA… PELHAM… PELL CITY… ROANOKE… SULLIGENT… SYLACAUGA… TALLADEGA… TUSCALOOSA AND VERNON.WBRC AL.:
This morning we’ve been monitoring numerous storms over northern Alabama. Lots of rain has already fallen in places like Phil Campbell and Hackleburg. Some other isolated storms have developed over our southern communities. In fact, small hail was reported in Clanton earlier. Look for more thunderstorms to develop by late morning and some may be severe, with damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and heavy rain. Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out with any storms that develop. The storm threat will shift into east Alabama during the late afternoon, with gradual clearing overnight. Lows will be near 60-degrees.
The good news is that our weather conditions will improve for the Memorial Day weekend.
The chance of rain will return to our forecast starting on Wednesday as the ridge becomes more centered to our west. There is a chance a few storms could ride in from the northwest starting late on Wednesday. I don’t expect a huge change in temperatures, with highs near 90 through the end of the short work-week. Stay with Fox 6 throughout the day for the latest regarding today’s storm threat and also tune in for more updates here on the blog.
Wes Wyatt
Fox 6 Meteorologist
5/25/2011
Severe Weather Update – 10:45 PMNew Tornado Watch Until 4am
The following tornado watch includes Marion and Winston Counties in Alabama
The radar above tells the story – another line of strong to severe storms rolling through north-central Mississippi heading towards Alabama. The line is blanketed with severe thunderstorm warnings, and from time to time a few tornado warnings have appeared.
Based on the latest SPC mesoanalysis, it look like this line of storms will at least maintain its intensity as it works its way into northwest Alabama’s Marion and Lamar Counties within the next 45 minutes to an hour. Strong, straight-line winds are possible in addition to some large hail. While shear in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere, suggested by mesoanalysis, is supportive of a few tornadoes, the linear nature of the thunderstorms should act to keep the tornado threat low. However, a quick spinup tornado or two is possible, especially within any comma head structures in the line or any breaks in the line where storms are more cellular in nature.
A tornado watch remains in effect for northwest and northern Alabama until 4 AM. A tornado watch also is in effect for much of central Mississippi until 4 AM CDT. We will continue to keep you updated with fresh weather information throughout the night tonight, so stay tuned!
Isaac Williams
FOX 6 WBRC Blog Contributor
Here’s the latest on our developing weather situation tonight and tomorrow. The timeline has shifted a bit earlier. It appears the best chance for severe weather will be west of I-65 and shortly after midnight through at least 3am. A line of thunderstorms will gradually weaken as it moves east of I-65. The main threat will be damaging winds and large hail. The highest potential for tornadoes will remain in Marion, Lamar, Winston, and Fayette Counties.
We will likely see some additional isolated severe storms during the afternoon Thursday. The tornado threat during the afternoon will be almost non-existent. However, we will likely see a few storms capable of winds in excess of 40mph, large hail, and frequent lightning.
I would advise people who live west of I-65 to sleep with their weather radios on or at least monitor the weather overnight. This system does not compare to the strength of the storms April 27th, but the storms will have the ability to cause some damage.
Watching Early Thursday Morning…
We’ve got some severe weather in the forecast, but let me assure you it’s not a repeat of April 27th or what our friends to the west have experience over the last several days. But, we do need to watch this system because it will impact us as early as the pre-dawn hours of Thursday.
My main concern will be after 3am from areas west of I-65 and specifically north of I-20. The counties where we really need to stay focused on the weather include Marion, Fayette, Lamar, Winston, Walker, and Cullman.
Primary threats will include a squall line capable of winds over 40mph, lightning, hail, and even an isolated small spin-up tornado. Models are indicating the line should weaken as it moves East Thursday morning. This means areas like Gadsden, Anniston, Pell City, and Talladega will not have as high of a severe weather threat.
I think we will have two waves of severe storms – the main event during the morning and another around probably after 2pm Thursday. The dynamics really lift to the north by the afternoon so the threat will shift more to high winds and hail. The tornado threat is almost non-existent for the afternoon.
I have a series of maps from the 12z NAM that will showcase why I think we will have severe storms and why I think the line will weaken. The first map is the significant tornado parameter – note the greatest threat will be in western counties and even then the STP is on the low end.
Another index I use a lot when predicting severe weather is the energy helicity index. The EHI is a wonderful tool because it combines instability and wind shear. Notice the EHI is on the higher side for western counties in the AM, but quickly decreases by the afternoon.
The EHI by 1pm is looking a bit better.
That’s my analysis based on current data. I would suspect a thunderstorm watch tomorrow or perhaps a tornado watch for our extreme northern and western counties. The Fox 6 StormWarn team will keep you posted.
James Paul is GREAT – Follow this link for expanded coverage for Alerts issued by THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER for all PDS areas!
James-Paul Dice — Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
Being there are a few dozen alerts coming every 10 seconds, I am retweeting these alerts:
@justpipertoo
0
Tor:Con Forecast for Thursday, May 26
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/torcon-daily-forecast_2011-05-19
Count on they will be raised!
THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY
UNSTABLE…ESPECIALLY WEST ALABAMA WHERE LIFTED INDICES ARE NEAR -8
CELSIUS AND SB CAPES ARE NEAR 2500 J/KG. THE INTENSITY OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION CAN BE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE THE
CUMULUS FIELD IS ACTUALLY DECREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING WHILE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH FEEDS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THE MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO NW
ALABAMA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE
NORTHERN END OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY MOVES
FASTER EASTWARD AS THE UPPER JET MAX PUSHES AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW…WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE SLOWS DOWN AS THE
JET MAX LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE LINE. THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
SHEAR PROFILES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE…AND THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS THE 0-2KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 35 KNOTS. THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUBSIDE AND VEER SLIGHTLY AFTER 3 AM WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE THE TORNADO THREAT.
.LONG TERM…
AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SQUALL LINE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA….ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING…GIVEN THE WEAKENING AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF KEY JET FEATURES. HOWEVER…LACK OF MID
LEVEL CAP AND SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SURFACE INSTABILITIES…AND FIRING OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE…BUT THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON…AND SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THURSDAY EVENING…EXPECT A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH ANY
ONGOING CONVECTION. FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FAR EAST FOR FRIDAY
MORNING…BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO BE OUT OF THE AREA. A BRIEF
COOL DOWN TO AVERAGE TEMPS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
http://tinyurl.com/3d5buqu
Praying for my daughter & Grandkids..JUST look at this radar !!!
http://tinyurl.com/yz8ftoo