US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world’s biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%
The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.
The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.
The revelation comes as the oil price has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel on global demand and tensions in the Middle East. Many analysts expect that the Saudis and their Opec cartel partners would pump more oil if rising prices threatened to choke off demand.
However, Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, met the US consul general in Riyadh in November 2007 and told the US diplomat that Aramco’s 12.5m barrel-a-day capacity needed to keep a lid on prices could not be reached.
According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as “peak oil”.
Husseini said that at that point Aramco would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the time needed to bring new oil on tap.
“According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray.”
It went on: “In a presentation, Abdallah al-Saif, current Aramco senior vice-president for exploration, reported that Aramco has 716bn barrels of total reserves, of which 51% are recoverable, and that in 20 years Aramco will have 900bn barrels of reserves.
“Al-Husseini disagrees with this analysis, believing Aramco’s reserves are overstated by as much as 300bn barrels. In his view once 50% of original proven reserves has been reached … a steady output in decline will ensue and no amount of effort will be able to stop it. He believes that what will result is a plateau in total output that will last approximately 15 years followed by decreasing output.”
The US consul then told Washington: “While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”
Seven months later, the US embassy in Riyadh went further in two more cables. “Our mission now questions how much the Saudis can now substantively influence the crude markets over the long term. Clearly they can drive prices up, but we question whether they any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period.”
A fourth cable, in October 2009, claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further constrain Saudi oil exports. “Demand [for electricity] is expected to grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation capacity to 68,000MW in 2018,” it said.
It also reported major project delays and accidents as “evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production.” While fears of premature “peak oil” and Saudi production problems had been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in public.
In the last two years, other senior energy analysts have backed Husseini. Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian last year that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was “not good news” for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.
Jeremy Leggett, convenor of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, said: “We are asleep at the wheel here: choosing to ignore a threat to the global economy that is quite as bad as the credit crunch, quite possibly worse.”
Peak oil alarm revealed by secret official talks Behind government dismissals of ‘alarmist’ fears there is growing concern over critical future energy supplies
Are we running out of oil? The world in energy statistics Fascinating insight into how we consume power – and how much of it we have left
NOT Backing Down…
Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee Peter King (R-NY) spoke with Martha MacCallum earlier on America’s Newsroom. The congressman responded to remarks by critics saying his proposed hearings to determine the threat of radical muslims within the United States’ borders are akin to the nation’s McCarthy era. Rep. King, however, says that he won’t be swayed, and that these hearings are the result of a clear and present threat posed to America by Islamic extremists.
From David Horowitz:
Get ready for the Brotherhood!
The situation in Egypt remains chaotic, but the Obama White House — while trying to cover its tracks with doublespeak — has finally settled on a position: Hosni Mubarak, lynchpin of Mideast stability for the last 30 years, must be thrown under the bus on the Arab streets.
And if he is replaced by the Muslim Brotherhood–anti semitic, anti American godfather organization to Hamas and al Qaeda? So be it!
The Brotherhood is just another leopard whose spots will be transformed by the President Obama’s message of “change.” In fact, all the President’s men are telling the press, off the record of course, that Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech — chock full of apologies for U.S. misbehavior — actually caused the potentially catastrophic changes now occuring in Egypt.
Do business with the Muslim Brotherhood? Boast about creating the situation in which this organization can come to power?
This is not foreign policy, it is madness!
The Muslim Brotherhood is the source of jihad in the Middle East (and, for that matter, in the U.S. where the FBI has proven that it operates through the Muslim Student Association and other fronts). Its Palestinian branch, Hamas, is a terror organization whose charter calls for the annihilation of Israel. In fact, Osama bin Laden was a graduate of the Brotherhood and so was the mastermind of 9/11, Sheik Khalid Mohammed! So in suggesting that the Muslim Brotherhood can be a democratic partner in Egypt, the Obama White House — so quiet when real democrats were being killed on the streets of Teheran in 2009 — has outdone even the Carter administration’s destabilization of the Shah of Iran in 1979 and its welcoming of the theocratic fascist Ayatollah Khomeini as a “saint.”
In the current chaos of Egypt, the radical left and its radical Islamist allies see possibilities. This unholy alliance wants a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood because this would be the most dangerous possible outcome for the U.S. and Israel. They want to persuade the American people that the Brotherhood is actually committed to “democracy,” not hatred and violence. And even now, while pulling its punches with an eye toward attaining power with a hands-off assist from the Obama White House, this sinister organization admits that it will tear up the Egyptian-Israeli agreement of 1979, which means that Israel will be once again under the gun as it was in the first few years of its existence… and that a war engulfing the whole of the Middle East is once again on the table.
We stand at a critical crossroads which has potentially catastrophic implications for the future of Israel and America itself.
We need to act quickly to tell the Truth About the Muslim Brotherhood!
The U.S. is almost certain to face an Egyptian government under the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood sometime this year. The Brotherhood and its apologists have long tried to influence the White House and will try to convince the media and the Obama administration that the Islamist group is moderate. And if the administration’s relationship with the Brotherhood’s allies is any indication, they’ll succeed.
The Obama Administration has signaled its acceptance of the Brotherhood in the next Egyptian government, with the State Department spokesman saying the group is “a fact of life in Egypt.” A secret meeting between a U.S. representative and the Brotherhood has been reported, though any communication has been denied. President Obama downplayed the threat from the Muslim Brotherhood in an interview with Bill O’Reilly on Sunday.
“I think that the Muslim Brotherhood is one faction in Egypt. They don’t have majority support in Egypt, but they are well-organized and there are strains of their ideology that are anti-U.S., there is no doubt about it,” he said.
The unrest and future change in government in Egypt will require an overhaul of U.S. policy towards the country, which will be shaped by whose advice President Obama listens to. According to Steve Emerson, the executive director of the Investigative Project on Terrorism, the administration has extensive relations with groups and leaders tied to the Muslim Brotherhood.
“The Obama Administration has opened its doors to Muslim Brotherhood legacy groups such as the Council on American-Islamic Relations, the Muslim Public Affairs Council, the Islamic Society of North America and other Islamic leaders who come from Muslim Brotherhood backgrounds,” Emerson told FrontPage.
Even before Obama came into office, he was choosing advisers with relationships to Brotherhood front groups. The director of his presidential campaign’s outreach to the Muslim community, Mazen Asbahi, resigned after he was criticized for frequently speaking for groups like those mentioned by Emerson and serving on the board of a trust alongside an imam tied to the Brotherhood and Hamas. In the first month of becoming President, Obama selected Ingrid Mattson, the president of the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA), to take part in the inaugural prayer services. The federal government has designated ISNA as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the Holy Land Foundation trial, and the Brotherhood’s internal documents identify it as one of its fronts.
Obama’s chief terrorism advisor, John Brennan, spoke alongside Mattson at New York University despite this designation. The senior advisor and assistant to the president, Valerie Jarrett, was the keynote speaker at ISNA’s 46th convention in July 2009.
President Obama chose Rashad Hussain to be his special envoy to the Organization of the Islamic Conference. He has long been a featured speaker at conferences by Brotherhood-tied groups in the U.S., and although he has condemned Hamas, he has called on the U.S. to build a Muslim coalition that is “not limited to those who advocate Western-style democracy, and avoid creating a dichotomy between freedom and Islamic society.” He has spoken for ISNA since being appointed, and has shared the stage with officials from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), another Brotherhood-tied group that has been listed as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the Holy Land Foundation trial.
President Obama chose Rashad Hussain to be his special envoy to the Organization of the Islamic Conference. He has long been a featured speaker at conferences by Brotherhood-tied groups(New Obama Envoy Has History Of Engagement With U.S. Muslim Brotherhood; Called Al-Arian Case “Politically Motivated Persecution”) in the U.S., and although he has condemned Hamas, he has called on the U.S. to build a Muslim coalition that is “not limited to those who advocate Western-style democracy, and avoid creating a dichotomy between freedom and Islamic society.” He has spoken for ISNA since being appointed, and has shared the stage with officials from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), another Brotherhood-tied group that has been listed as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the Holy Land Foundation trial.
Note from JP: This convention was held in my neighborhood year after year and is how I got to know Steve. It has been held in Rosemont, Il. for the most part since 1989-50% of all conventions. A total of eleven times out of the 22 Conventions, as a matter of fact I was SO infuriated when I got wind of the one in 2000 , that is when I got involved in the WOT and contacted Steve.
One of the members of the President’s Advisory Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships is Dalia Mogahed. She has been described as the “most influential person” in crafting Obama’s speech in Cairo to the Muslim world. She is a close colleague of John Esposito, perhaps the Brotherhood’s most prestigious apologist in the U.S. He gave expert testimony on behalf of the Holy Land Foundation during its trial and is a vocal defender of CAIR, ISNA and the other organizations tied to the Brotherhood.
I advise you to show this post to all the naysayers, liberals & the PC crowd who deliberately ignore Obama’s islamic agenda or bury their collective ‘stepford’ mentality in the proverbial sand. ~JP
Read the last part of Ryan Mauro’s piece for FP here Ryan is the founder of WorldThreats.com, the National Security Adviser for the Christian Action Network and an analyst with Wikistrat.
Duck and cover! Glenn Reynolds gives credit to the Obama Administration for calling attention to the dangers of an atomic blast. Civil defense was sometimes ridiculed, but Obama is bringing it back with the publication offering guidance in the event of a nuclear detonation. Find out more about how you can survive a dirty bomb, or worse, on this episode of InstaVision.
Is history repeating itself? Will America fall like Rome? Do Americans have their eyes turned to games and idols rather than to leaders and policy makers? This week on Reality Report episode 80, we look at the Super Bowl and show you what you may have missed while watching the game. We look at Ron Paul’s recent remarks on foreign aid and its impact on America, and Ernest Hancock from Freedom’s Phoenix joins us to share how he is exporting freedom to Egypt. We give you the link so you can hop in the van with us to CPAC as we do a live 12 hour experimental broadcast from the road!
Former CIA Director R. James Woolsey has an intimate conversation about his participation in the Center for Security Policy’s Team B II and the writing of Shariah: The Threat to America. Mr. Woolsey spoke with the Center’s Dave Reaboi about the implications of Team B II’s findings on the Shariah threat– and how it applies to the events in Egypt.
NOTE: When an image is present click on it for story…
–FOX Republicans Plan to Choke Off Funding for Health Care Law. Rep. Steve King floats new idea…
There’s an old saying in Washington that the policy follows the money. In other words, if there’s no money for something, the policy won’t go very far.
—> LA Sheriff, close friend of Hamas-linked CAIR, challenges Rep. King on claim that Muslims in U.S. not cooperating with law enforcement
–All About Apophis…Who says the world is only full of bad news? NASA has largely dismissed a Russian report that an asteroid larger than two football fields could hit Earth by 2036. In other words, you can relax.
Known as “99942 Apophis,” the 900-foot-long asteroid has had the attention of scientists for some time. According to an article from SPACE.com, back in 2004, NASA scientists announced that Apophis could hit the planet in 2029. But, after further number crunching, that prediction was later retracted.
—> Apophis Asteroid Not a Danger but ‘A real chance’ for Study…Russian scientists last week said that the Apophis asteroid may collide with the earth in 2036 but a report came out this week which said the chance of it striking the earth is highly unlikely.
~Image–The scene of a car bombing in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk. Three near-simultaneous car bombs have killed at least eight people in the west of the ethnically-divided city, according to a medical official and a police officer (AFP/Marwan Ibrahim)
–NYT Deadly Bombings in Kirkuk Aim at Kurdish Militia…BAGHDAD — A series of car bombs shook the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk on Wednesday killing 10 and wounding at least 90 in a large-scale assault that appeared aimed at a local Kurdish militia.
(Cancel THIS subscription to an UNPatriotic Act!) — House Debates Short-Term Extension of Patriot Act…A nine-month extension of three surveillance provisions expiring on Feb. 28 would give Congress time to debate longer-term approaches.
—> Heritage Patriot Act Facts Last night, despite a strong majority vote in favor of the bill, the House of Representatives fell seven votes short of the two-thirds they needed to suspend the rules and pass three key counterterrorism amendments to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).
–(Veiled Threat?) Egypt VP WARNS: Protests Must End Soon…CAIRO — Vice President Omar Suleiman warned Tuesday that “we can’t put up with” continued protests in Tahrir for a long time, saying the crisis must be ended as soon as possible in a sharply worded sign of increasing regime impatience with 16 days of mass demonstrations.
— Obama Lays a Trap for Eventual GOP Nominee…Next year’s election is shaping up as another ideological struggle between right and left, a situation President Obama is working overtime to avoid.
— Virginia Judge Defies Higher Court to Revisit Case of Immigrant Set for Deportation…A Virginia judge has openly defied his state’s Supreme Court, ignoring a key immigration ruling in order to reopen the case of an immigrant slated for deportation.
— Montana Senate Votes to Adopt Cowboy Code…The Senate gave preliminary approval Monday to adopt the “Code of the West” as Montana’s code.
— Heritage (NO CLASS Act) –Secretary Sebelius Will Not Find the Right Formula to Fix CLASS
— CFP In Europe, Fiscal Insanity Erupts As Bankrupt Nations Scramble To Bailout Other Bankrupt Nations
— Republicans grill Bernanke over inflation threat (AP)- Members of Congress sharply questioned Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Wednesday over whether the Fed’s policies are raising the risk of rising inflation in the months ahead.
–Al Jazz South Sudan minister shot dead–Jimmy Lemi Milla, minister for cooperatives and reural development, shot dead alongside his bodyguard in personal feud
(JUST two days ago) —> U.S. to Recognize Southern Sudan as Independent Nation
–WaPo IMPACT: At CIA, grave mistakes, then promotions…WASHINGTON — In December 2003, security forces boarded a bus in Macedonia and snatched a German citizen named Khaled el-Masri. For the next five months, el-Masri was a ghost. Only a select group of CIA officers knew he had been taken to a secret prison for interrogation in Afghanistan. But he was the wrong guy!